College basketball ties a lot of us together. It’s the sport that brings fans together with emotion more than any other. Allegiances fall with cities, regions and diplomas. In Cincinnati, loyalties fall mostly with Xavier, Cincinnati, Kentucky and Ohio State. It brings even the most indifferent sports fans to the television. It’s what fills March with Madness. Maybe in no other place in the country do fans so passionately align themselves with their respective programs.

And why not? All four represent rich traditions well represented in the tri-state. So in the spirit of forecasting for 2011, here’s a look at the area’s big four.

Xavier

This season hasn’t started as strongly as the Muskies’ fans probably would have hoped, but at this point they’ve got to be happy they have enough players to even practice.

At a point not long ago, Xavier had only nine active scholarship athletes. Not quite the luck Chris Mack hoped to have following a 26-9 season, and a third straight NCAA tournament Sweet 16 appearance.

After losing center Jason Love and guard Jordan Crawford to graduation, X would lose one of the nation’s best 3-point shooters in junior Brad Redford to a torn ACL, in addition to uber-talented 6’7” forward Justin Martin from Indianapolis, who was declared a partial qualifier by the NCAA.

Martin played last year at Mountain State Academy in West Virginia, and according to most, is a star. Ranked in the top-100 by Rivals.com and in the top-50 (with a scouts’ grade of 95) according to ESPN.com. He can practice with the team and receive a scholarship, but is ineligible to play and travel with the team. He has three more years of eligibility pending allowance from The Kremlin (ahem) I mean the NCAA.

This doesn’t mean Xavier won’t be a contender in the Atlantic-10 or in the NCAA tournament once again.

Jamel McLean is scheduled to miss only 3-6 weeks with a broken orbital floor (“doc speak” for an eye socket). A more athletic McLean on the front line could gain what was lost with Jason Love. McLean had over 100 offensive rebounds last year, and will need to get to double-double numbers to make up for the loss up front with Martin.

Xavier’s most significant returnee is junior point guard Tu Holloway. If you were to ask any number of coaches across the country if they had to choose any player (outside of one of their own) to have the ball in the final moments of a game, I guarantee a lot of them would choose Holloway.

Coming off a game winner in triple overtime over Wofford, Holloway is the only double-digit returning scorer and an incredibly reliable ball handler. He’s a 2.0 assist-to-turnover ratio guy, exactly what you want at quarterback. Senior guard Dante Jackson needs to stay on the floor and out of foul trouble. If he does, he could emerge as one of the best in the country from 3-point range. He hit 57 threes last year, but committed almost twice as many fouls. Xavier will need those threes; Jordan Crawford led the team by more than twenty a year ago.

About a month out from the start of conference play, the Muskies will have plenty of opportunities to challenge top programs and possibly move out of rankings that most put at or around 30th at this point. National runner-up Butler, Wake Forest and Florida among others await X before Atlantic-10 play begins in early January. The adversity they face now could prove instrumental if they play well – not necessarily in wins – to possibly obtain confidence heading into March.

In order for the Muskies to improve and get back to the teams we’ve been used to from Victory Parkway, underclassman will have to step up. Analysts believe sophomore Jeff Robinson may be one of the most athletic players in the entire conference. Thus far, the Cintas Center has seen little of that.

A solid group of freshman that Mack says are “fast learners” include 6’8” forward and perimeter threat Jordan Latham, 6’9” forward and Moeller grad Griffin McKenzie, and no-nonsense, all business small forward Jay Canty.

They’ll have to be fast learners…for now.

Right now they will play and grow “by committee” as Mack put it, and he should know. Maybe the most promising fact Xavier will not only survive, but most likely contend for the A-10 crown is Mack himself.

After being named the sixth coach in the last 25 years at X, fans now have a guy in a suit that is in it for the long haul. Last year, Mack was the winningest head coach in his first year in Division I; his first ever as the top dog of a program, which also happens to be his Alma Mater.

After losing just one home game in each year of the previous three, Mack went undefeated at home. He also took them to their third straight Sweet 16 appearance, Michigan State being the only other team to do so.

Winning 20 games in a season isn’t the stat it once used to be (unless you’re in Clifton, more on that later) however four Sweet 16’s and two Elite 8’s since 2000 certainly is. A trip to their first Final Four is inevitable, just maybe not this year. One thing is for sure: Xavier isn’t going anywhere.

UC

It’s hard to believe that after more than a decade of consistently appearing and remaining in the top 25 polls, the Cincinnati Bearcats have not even made the national tournament since 2005, which was (coincidentally or not) Bob Huggins’ last season as head coach.

Mick Cronin took over after a short-lived tenure for Andy Kennedy, who stepped in for Huggins in 2006, and the ‘Cats have gone 61-68 since. Earlier I stated that winning 20 games isn’t the stat it used to be. The reason is the number of games coaches schedule nowadays. That said, UC hasn’t won 20 since that 2006 season.

That makes them exactly what they were before Bob Huggins took over: irrelevant.

This is not an indictment of Nancy Zimpher or the University of Cincinnati administration on their decision to dump “Hugs.” I can’t blame them. Although he did take the Bearcats to three elite 8’s and a Final Four in 1992, his teams did fail to make it out of the first two rounds of the national tournament ten times. Six of those were when his team was ranked inside the top 15, four times when they were in the top 10. So when you don’t play nice with your bosses, they’ll look for reasons to get you out. They did, and that was that.

So to look ahead for this year and beyond, you have to look at what’s coming in.

Gone from last year’s team that lost seven games by four points or fewer are Lance Stephenson and Deonta Vaughn, the Bearcats’ two top-scorers. That doesn’t bode well for a group that struggled in that department already, averaging fewer than 70 points per game. They also shot less than 43%, and 29% from three-point land. They can d-up and rebound, but they score about as well as a sports writer backstage at a Victoria’s Secret Fashion Show.

Wait…

Anyway, the fact of the matter is Cronin added only three freshmen to his roster, one of which is a redshirt from 2009: shooting guard Sean Kilpatrick. He’s joined by 6’8” power forward Justin Jackson and 6’10” center Kelvin Gaines.

Jackson is a good finisher and rebounder that handles the rock better than most his size. Gaines is a top defender with raw offensive skills, hoping to add depth to a frontline that features Yancey Gates and wingman Rashad Bishop. Gates averaged 10 points per game as a sophomore, but reached double figures in all three Big East Tournament games for UC. Bishop provides a mid-range threat, and if Ibrahima Thomas scores in the low post it’ll take tremendous pressure off the guards to score. That’s a six-foot eleven-inch “if.”

The Bearcats are again struggling for points with only Gates and junior guard Dion Dixon averaging double figures at eleven a piece, and 66 points per game collectively as a team. Kilpatrick is doing what he can thus far at nine points per game, but more will be needed out of Cashmere Wright, Jaquon Parker and senior Larry Davis. They total about 13 points per game this year. That won’t do it.

So what’s ahead?

The Bearcats scheduled softly in the non-conference and you can’t blame them. Presently the Big East touts six teams in the AP top 25. Three are in the top 10. If you’ve struggled the way UC has over the last several years, you need wins…anywhere you can find them.

They’ll get them before they welcome DePaul after Christmas. However, it gets tortuous after that, with a “break” from Big East play with X in the Crosstown Shootout on January 6. The rest of the month brings trips to Philly to take on Villanova, Syracuse and Notre Dame before hosting West Virginia on the 29th.

And that’s just January.

Don’t look for Cincinnati to be much of a factor in the loaded Big East. They will upset a few and possibly win a few games in the tournament at Madison Square Gardens, but again the horses just aren’t there. But they may be coming…

Shaquille Thomas, a 6’7” small forward from Montclair, New Jersey is the player Mick Cronin knew he had to get. He’s got all the tools of a great scorer with an incredible amount of athleticism. The thing that will quiet Cronin’s critics is the fact that Thomas is an ESPN top 100 recruit. Give a player – any player – a title, and the fans will respect it. Why? I’ll never know.

One guy I can tell you about firsthand is Ge’Lawn Guyn. He’s an incredibly underrated, smart, versatile guard who can handle the point, play frustrating defense and shoot. I dubbed him the “Gordon Gekko of Kentucky High School basketball” as a junior at Scott County. He’s all business.

Guyn was recruited by a number of schools after his sophomore year, and verbally committed to Charlotte. He would then reopen his recruitment as a junior at Scott County. Alongside Kentucky recruit Dakotah Euton, Louisville recruit Richie Phares and point guard phenom Chad Jackson, Ge’Lawn got overlooked. At 6’3” he won’t be as successful attacking the hoop as he was in high school, but he will make plays – lots of them. He won’t be a star, but he will become a key ingredient for Bearcat success in the future.

Kentucky

Five Wildcats, one who didn’t even start, were drafted in the first round of last year’s NBA draft. Anywhere else, you’re rebuilding this year. It helps to have John Calipari as head coach. When Cal is at the helm, you just reload.

As John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Eric Bledsoe, Patrick Patterson and Daniel Orton depart, Brandon Knight, Doron Lamb, and Terrance Jones among others march into Lexington as the nation’s number one recruiting class. No big.

Thus far, analysts have ranked UK anywhere from the top 10 to outside the top 20. It’s so difficult to assess a team when the majority of key contributors have never played college basketball before. We’ve seen this before. Calipari and number one recruiting classes are now becoming synonymous.

This recruiting class of freshmen has a giant void to fill; the one left after the Kremlin (cough) pardon, again the NCAA, ruled Turkish National Enes Kanter ineligible. That left a vacancy low under the basket with only Josh Harrellson and Eloy Vargas to fill it.

Kentucky does feel confident that their appeal on Kanter to the Politburo will favor them, but they’re the minority. We have to assume for now the Wildcats will move forward with only three forwards on their active roster, two of which are freshman.

Breathe, Big Blue Nation. Breathe. This is in no way disastrous. Alarming, yes – but not a disaster. Keep in mind that coach Cal’s teams have fared pretty well in the past with perimeter and wing players. He made his mark in the NCAA Tournament at Memphis by bringing in five-star recruits at the guard and small forward positions, running the dribble-drive offense. The tournament rewards those who match up well, which may present a problem come March for the Cats; but if history is any indication, a Big Blue run is certainly a more than just plausible.

In fact, their lineup this year may be more dangerous than last. A couple reasons why:

1.) With Patterson, Cousins and Orton last year, Calipari did not run as much of his famed dribble-drive that features great guard play than he has in the past. It took Kentucky a while to get into rhythm, and at times in the latter part of the season seemed out of sync. This year without the size and talent down low, Cal gets to run the offense he really wants to, and he can do it for 40 minutes.

2.) Shooting from the perimeter. Neither Brandon Knight, Doron Lamb or Darius Miller is as fast or as explosive as John Wall, but they are better shooters from the perimeter. They’re also more consistent and handle the ball better than Eric Bledsoe. Knight is having is problems at the moment with turnovers, but he’ll improve – much like John Wall did as his freshman season progressed. Having Wall may have been a game changer, but these two give you more options to score when you need to down open shots. Remember, it wasn’t a lack of talent that knocked them out of the tournament; it was ice-cold shooting vs. West Virginia. Despite out-rebounding the Mountaineers by 15, they missed 44 shots and went 4-32 from three. Having Brandon Knight at the point this year just may be (gasp) better than having John Wall.

Make no mistake about it; the absence of Kanter for UK is big. But as time wears on this season, most will say in the end “They are who we thought they were.” That’s an incredibly dangerous team. One that will make some noise come this March.

Ohio State

Nine Final Fours.

When you talk about the richest college basketball traditions, the “Big Five” always come up: UCLA, Kentucky, North Carolina, Duke, and Kansas. The expectations there are the same year in and year out. Whether you’re in Lexington, Chapel Hill, Durham, L.A., or Lawrence, the fans expect the same thing every year: another Final Four banner hanging in the rafters.

In Columbus, it’s just not the same. The beating heart of the Buckeye Nation will always remain in the Horseshoe, and in the hopes of another national football title. That’s why it comes as a surprise to many (at least many under the age of 40) that the Buckeye men’s basketball team is steeped in the same rich tradition as the aforementioned “Big Five.”

Nine Final Fours. That’s one more than Michigan State, Indiana and Louisville; two more than Michigan; four more than Georgetown and five more than Syracuse. That’s a better resume than some serious programs across the college basketball landscape. Oh, and don’t forget the 1999 Final Four was vacated due to violations under then coach Jim O’Brien. So it really should be ten.

So how does that apply to this year? It doesn’t, in any way. Yet this year, the Bucks are, in fact, good…really good. They are a model of balance between upperclassman experience and underclass talent.

With the departure of Evan Turner to the NBA, head coach Thad Matta wasn’t exactly left with an empty pantry. David Lighty, the versatile swingman brings back exactly what Ohio State lacked with Turner’s exit: a guy who can match-up down low and shoot from long-range (41% in fact last year). He’s already been compared to Morris Peterson, Michigan State’s inside-outside threat on their 2000 National Championship team. Add junior guard William Buford and senior Jon Diebler, and you have experienced sharpshooters that could wind up the best-shooting back court in the country. Keep in mind Buford was the Big Ten’s Freshman Of The Year in 2009.

His job becomes much easier now that he has what I believe to be the 2011 Big Ten Freshman Of The Year, Jared Sullinger. He’s from right in their back yard, which is convenient.

The Northland High School graduate may just be the best freshman post player in the entire country. His high school teammate J.D. Weatherspoon has been ranked at the top of most all top freshman forward lists, and Deshaun Thomas was named one of the best recruits in the country overall – and is also a forward.

With the shooting talent and experience in the backcourt coupled with the most highly touted freshmen frontline in college basketball, I’ll give you my forecast for the Buckeyes in 2011: a Final Four appearance and maybe their second national title.